Sudden Loss of an Export Market. Five steps to find a new market quickly

The sudden loss of an export market is a crisis that can paralyze a business, but it also presents an opportunity to reassess operations and find better alternatives. In this article, we outline five steps to help you quickly identify new target markets and minimize losses. With practical tools and real-world examples, we’ll show you how to turn a threat into new opportunities.
In recent years, many exporting companies have experienced sudden shocks – economic sanctions, changes in customs regulations, trade wars or the COVID-19 pandemic have shown how fragile dependence on a single market can be. Many of exporters worldwide had to urgently find new sales directions in the last 5 years due to losing access to their existing customers.
If your main sales market has become unavailable, you don’t have time for lengthy analyses – you need quick but strategic decisions. In this article, we’ll show you how to find new markets in 5 steps and minimize losses.

The New Reality in Global Trade

Over the past five years, global trade has experienced a series of shocks that have forced exporters to revise their international strategies. Many exporting companies had to make significant corrections to their international strategies due to:

• Economic sanctions
• Changes in customs regulations
• The collapse of demand in key markets
• Disruptions in supply chains
• Other geopolitical factors

Why is quick response crucial?  Companies that find alternative sales directions within 3 months of losing a market can lose less revenue than those who delay decisions.

Step 1: Immediate Situation Diagnosis

Identification of Problem Causes

Before taking corrective action, it’s necessary to understand the source of the problem. Before you start looking for new customers, you need to understand:

• Why did you lose access to the market? (sanctions, legal changes, drop in demand)
• How urgent is the need to find an alternative? (Do you have inventory you need to sell quickly?)
• What resources do you have for a response? (time, finances, production flexibility)

Main causes of market loss:

• Military conflict
• Economic sanctions
• Changes in consumer preferences
• Increase in customs barriers
• Political instability
• Natural disasters

Quick analysis methods:

• Monitoring and analyzing government alerts
• Monitoring, collecting, and analyzing information from media (including industry)
• Analysis of trade data
• Consultations with local business partners

Understanding the nature of changes will allow for better diagnosis of the problem scale, thus defining potential solutions.

Assessment of Engagement Level in the Lost Market

Why is this important? Before you start looking for new markets, you need to understand how deeply your company was engaged in the previous export market. This analysis will help you determine:

• How urgent is the need to find an alternative?
• What resources should you redirect to new markets?
• Is it worth withdrawing completely from this direction or just reducing engagement?

Key diagnostic questions:

1. What percentage of revenue did this market generate?

• • Why is this important?
    • If the market accounted for over 30% of sales, its loss requires immediate action.
    • If it was marginal (e.g., 5-10%), you can afford a longer analysis.
  • What to do?
    • Calculate the exact share of this market in your revenues.
    • If it were a key market, focus on markets with similar characteristics (e.g., the same customs zone).

2. Did you have regular customers there, or was the sale incidental?

• • Why is this important?
    • Regular contractors mean you’re losing a predictable stream of orders.
    • Occasional sales give more flexibility in looking for alternatives.
  • What to do?
    • If the cooperation was long-term, contact the customers – maybe a solution can be found (e.g., export through a third country).
    • If the market were just an additional one, focus on other directions.

3. Did you invest in local infrastructure (warehouse, office, employees)?

• • Why is this important?
    • Physical presence = higher withdrawal costs.
    • Export only = easier to move sales elsewhere.
  • What to do?
    • If you have local investments, consider:
      • Can they be used to serve other markets?
      • Is it worth maintaining the infrastructure while waiting for the situation to change?
    • If you operate only through distributors, look for new partners in other countries.

4. Do you have outstanding payments or obligations in this market?

• • Why is this important?
    • Unpaid invoices mean real financial losses.
    • Orders in progress may require urgent reorganization.
  • What to do?
    • Assess the scale of the problem: Is recovering receivables possible?
    • Consult a lawyer specializing in international trade.
    • Consider receivables insurance for the future.

How to use this assessment?

• If the engagement was large (over 30% of revenue, local investments):
  • Act quickly but strategically – look for markets with similar potential.
  • Consider temporary solutions (e.g., export through intermediaries).
• If the engagement was moderate (10-30% of revenue):
  • Use existing distribution channels to test new markets.
• If the engagement was marginal (below 10%):
  • Treat this as an opportunity for diversification – look for more stable directions.

Step 2: Quick Identification of Potential Alternative Markets – Practical Questions and Solutions

1. How to find markets with a similar profile to the lost one?

• • Why is this important? A market with similar characteristics means lower product adaptation costs and a quicker start.
  • How to do it?
    • Check if there are websites where you can see which countries import similar goods.
    • Analyze customs data – which countries have low duties for your product category?
    • Ask current customers – do they know contacts in other countries?

2. How to assess real demand without lengthy research?

• • Why is this important? Traditional market analyses take months – you need data in days.
  • Quick methods:
    • Test through e-commerce – list your product on a local marketplace and observe click-through rates.
    • Use Google Trends – are queries for your product category growing in a given country?
    • Call 3-5 local distributors – ask directly about interest.
  • What to avoid? Relying solely on general economic statistics – they don’t show real purchase intent.

3. How to check if competition hasn’t already dominated the market?

• • Why is this important? Entering a saturated market means low margins and high promotion costs.
  • How to research this?
    • Search online for products similar to yours in the local market.
    • Check the share of foreign companies in search results.
    • Browse industry catalogs (e.g., Yellow Pages in the country) – how many local suppliers offer similar products?
    • Warning sign: If the first page of Google shows only local brands, entry may be difficult.

4. How to assess the stability of a new market?

• • Why is this important? You don’t want to repeat the mistake and lose the market again due to, for example, a political crisis.
  • Key indicators:
    • Indicators assessing corruption and the quality of law.
    • Indicators showing the risk of customer insolvency.
    • Economic articles – are there any alarms about sanctions or collapse in the media?
  • Red flags:
    • Sharp currency fluctuations (over 15% in 3 months).
    • Frequent changes in import regulations.

5. How to use previous experience?

• • Why is this important? Your current documentation may open doors in new markets.
  • What to check?
    • Are certificates (e.g., CE, FDA) recognized in the new country?
    • Do instructions and labels require only translation or also substantive changes?
    • Do you have photos/descriptions of products of a quality suitable for the new market?

Action plan for the first days:

• Select 5-10 countries with a profile similar to the lost market.
• Assess demand through online tests and contacts with distributors.
• Check the competition – is there room for your company?
• Verify stability – avoid “risky” directions.
• Use what you have – certificates, photos, previous experience.

Most common mistake? Attempting to enter “fashionable” markets without checking if your offer has a chance there. Always start with countries most similar to previous ones.

Step 3: Overcoming Legal and Logistics Barriers

1. How to quickly check legal requirements in a new market?

• • Why is this important? Non-compliance with local regulations may block the entire shipment.
  • Quick verification methods:
    • Enter your product code on platforms showing all requirements.
    • Check databases of current customs rates.
    • Call the local chamber of commerce – they often have ready guides.
  • Typical mistake: Assuming that certificates from the previous market are sufficient.

2. How to optimize logistics for a new direction?

• • Why is this important? Transportation costs can eat up the entire margin.
  • Check:
    • Which ports/terminals have the shortest transshipment times?
    • Whether it pays to consolidate shipments with other exporters.
    • The map of special economic zones – they often offer customs reliefs.
  • Tip: Courier companies provide free cost calculators.

Step 4: Adjusting Marketing and Pricing Strategy

1. How to change communication without large expenditures?

• • Why is this important? The same advertising slogans may be ineffective or even offensive.
  • Quick fixes:
    • Google Translate review isn’t enough – hire a native speaker for corrections.
    • Check local taboos (colors, symbols, gestures).
    • Use micro-influencers (cheaper than agencies).

2. How to set competitive prices?

• • Why is this important? Prices that are too high will deter, while prices that are too low will raise suspicions.
  • Methods:
    • Compare prices of the 3 main competitors on local platforms or target markets.
    • Add appropriately calculated markup to logistics and customs costs.
    • Consider psychological pricing (e.g., 99 instead of 100).

Step 5: Protection Against Future Shocks

How to create an early warning system?

Why is this important? Another sudden crisis shouldn’t surprise your company. Companies that implemented a risk monitoring system can avoid serious losses during the geopolitical crisis.

Specific actions:

• Subscribe to alerts:
  • About changes in trade regulations.
  • About economic instability.
  • About the worsening payment situation.
• Also:
  • Set up automatic notifications about customs tariff changes in ERP systems.
  • Create an information network, e.g., talk monthly with local partners about market moods.
  • Join industry monitoring groups.

How to diversify wisely?

• Create an optimal market division:
  • Never more than 30% of revenue from one country.
  • Have 3 sales markets.
  • One market in another geopolitical zone.
  • One “safe” market.

• Create financial reserves:
  • Develop a protection creation plan.
  • Aim for at least 6 months of operating cost reserves.
  • Create reserve capital.
  • Have an emergency credit line available.
  • Place reserves in the most stable currencies.
• Gain operational flexibility:
  • Be prepared for possible production changes.
  • Have spare production capacity for sudden events.
  • Don’t depend on one supplier of key production components.
  • Have ready databases of emergency suppliers in different regions.
  • Create a digital infrastructure enabling remote work in case of unforeseen events.
• Conduct regular resilience tests:
  • Simulate loss of the largest market.
  • Check team readiness time for response.
  • Create risk analyses.
  • Develop an emergency plan and update it.
  • Conduct crisis response workshops for management staff.

Crisis as a Lesson and Development Opportunity

Facing the loss of a key export market, quick and thoughtful action can not only minimize losses but also open new development opportunities. Losing an export market is undoubtedly a difficult challenge, but history shows that many companies have used such situations to accelerate development and diversification.

The key to success is a systematic approach – from quick diagnosis to long-term resilience building. Remember that in today’s unstable reality, diversification and flexibility are not luxuries but necessities. Use this situation as an opportunity to strengthen your company’s position in global trade.